The Future of Venezuela (Chavez vs Cancer)?

i am not supposed to write my analysis here, but i'll try to inform you the latest information about politics in Latin America, emphasized on Chavez and Venezuela, including the response of other neighbor countries.

Exclusive: Brazil wants Venezuela election if Chavez dies - sources

(Reuters) - Brazil is urging Venezuela's government to hold elections as quickly as possible if President Hugo Chavez dies, senior officials told Reuters on Monday, a major intervention by Latin America's regional powerhouse that could help ensure a smoother leadership transition in Caracas.

Brazilian officials have expressed their wishes directly to Venezuelan Vice President Nicolas Maduro, the officials said on condition of anonymity. Chavez has designated Maduro as his preferred successor if he loses his battle with cancer.

"We are explicitly saying that if Chavez dies, we would like to see elections as soon as possible," one official said. "We think that's the best way to ensure a peaceful democratic transition, which is Brazil's main desire."

Chavez is in Cuba receiving cancer treatment and he has not been seen in public for a month, prompting speculation that he is near death.

Venezuela's constitution says a new election must be held within 30 days if the president dies. Before leaving for Cuba, Chavez urged Venezuelans to back Maduro should the cancer leave him incapacitated, and Chavez's backers and the opposition appear to be preparing behind the scenes for a possible new vote.

Yet some foreign officials in the region, and some activists in more radical Venezuelan opposition circles, have privately expressed fears that the government could bend the rules if it wants, especially if polls show Maduro might lose.

The Supreme Court's controversial decision to postpone Chavez's inauguration last week reinforced concerns that loopholes could be used to keep the current government in power.

Venezuela's government said Sunday that Chavez's health has improved somewhat, though his lung infection still requires special care.

Brazil's stance on Venezuela is critical because it is by far Latin America's biggest country and it enjoys growing economic and diplomatic clout in the region.

Its president, Dilma Rousseff, is a moderate leftist whose party has strongly supported Chavez over the past decade. Yet she is also perceived as neutral and democratic enough to be a credible broker in helping Venezuela chart a path forward if a political crisis erupts.

The Brazilians have also communicated their desire for quick elections via "emissaries" to main opposition leader Henrique Capriles. By clearly supporting a democratic solution now, they hope to dissuade Capriles and others from inciting civil unrest in the event Chavez dies, the officials said.

"We're working very hard to ensure there's peace," the first official said.

Capriles, whom most assume would run against Maduro in an election, has so far taken a relatively subdued tone despite the political uncertainty. He said last week that Chavez's supporters would "win" politically if there was a violent confrontation.

BRASILIA WANTS TO TAKE THE LEAD

Brazil is keeping the United States apprised of its efforts, and is hoping to convince Washington to allow it to take the lead in managing a potential leadership transition in Venezuela. Chavez is one of the world's most vocal anti-U.S. leaders, and the Brazilian officials said they fear that any direct U.S. intervention in Venezuelan affairs could backfire.

Venezuela's opposition is demanding that Chavez step aside and name a caretaker president while he recovers - but those complaints have so far been ignored by governments around the region, including the Rousseff administration.

Brazil's push for quick elections in a post-Chavez Venezuela marks another important step in its emergence as a diplomatic heavyweight and champion of democracy in Latin America. Rousseff led a strong regional backlash last year when Paraguay's Congress impeached and removed then-President Fernando Lugo.

Under Rousseff's predecessor and mentor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil also took a proactive role in trying to resolve a political crisis in Honduras following the ouster of former President Manuel Zelaya in 2009.

Previously, Brazil had been more shy about taking the lead in regional crises, preferring to emphasize the right of countries to determine their own fates - long the bedrock principle of Brazilian diplomacy.

Lula, who remains an influential power broker in the region, will travel later this month to Cuba, where some speculate he could meet with Chavez, his longtime friend.

(Editing by Todd Benson and David Brunnstrom)

source: reuters.com

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Colombia wants to step up peace negotiations but FARC dragging their feet

Representatives of the Colombian government and Marxist-led FARC rebels reconvened in Havana Monday for a third round of peace talks that the administration of President Juan Manuel Santos says need to start moving faster.

The two sides began negotiating an end to their bloody, half-century-old conflict on November 19, but so far have only agreed on procedural issues and are returning from a three-week break over the holidays.

President Santos says he wants the process wrapped up by next November, but the rebels have said reaching a peace accord cannot be rushed.

They are trying to end a conflict that began in 1964 with the founding of the FARC, or Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, and in which an estimated 600.000 people have died and millions more have been displaced. From an early Marxist orientation umbrella FARC has been moving deep into the narcotics business and protection of drug lords which helps to finance the 8 to 9.000 men in arms it is estimated to have.

Upon arrival at the talks on Monday, lead government negotiator Humberto de la Calle called for more speed, saying the talks must move ahead at a “new pace” to maintain the support of the Colombian people.

“The important thing is that during these rounds the pace changes, that we enter with new energy this year so that here in Havana we reach agreement rapidly,” he told reporters outside the convention centre where the negotiations are being held.

”The people want to see an efficient, dignified, rapid (and) serious process,“ said de la Calle, a former vice president of Colombia.

With Norway and Cuba acting as guarantors, the government and FARC are following an agenda addressing the basic issues of the conflict, among them rural development, the FARC involvement in the illicit drug trade, the political and legal future of the group and restitution for the war's victim.

FARC also announced that their unilateral ceasefire will be suspended on 20 January, as initially planned. Some fear fresh Farc attacks in Colombia may hamper the negotiations.

But the rebels' chief negotiator, Ivan Marquez, has ruled out an extension of the ceasefire. ”The unilateral ceasefire ends on January 20“ Marquez told AP news agency. ”That's it.”

The Colombian government refused to cease military operations during the negotiations, arguing that rebels would use the opportunity to rearm, as had happened in several other previous frustrated peace talks..

Nevertheless there have been clashes since the FARC announced the ceasefire in late November.

source: en.mercopress.com